. >> susie: that and more tonight on nbr! it's only october, but at stores around the country, it's beginning to look a lot like christmas. the national retail federation is predicting a 4.1% gain in holiday sales. that would not be as good as last year, but still above the ten-year average. but as erika miller explains, there's greater uncertainty than usual in the forecasts. >> reporter: past the halloween decorations, the candy, and costumes, you will find the artificial trees, wreaths, and tinsel. stores like this kmart are displaying christmas merchandise early, hoping for a greater share of holiday spending. >> they are coming in and looking at the trees and getting the thought in their mind that christmas is coming, and start to think, "what can i start shopping for now?" >> reporter: but forecasters say it's more difficult than usual to predict consumer spending this holiday season. the big wild card is the presidential election. >> this is the most difficult year we've ever had to predict our forecast, because there'